Methods of Modeling Parameters of Organizational and Technological Construction Systems on the Basis of Multivariate Forecasts

The effective implementation of projects is inherently connected with solving the problems of forecasting the main indicators at the stage of their preparation and ensuring a balance at the stage of implementation, strategic, short-term and operational plans. The solution of these problems requires new methods of modeling the parameters of organizational and technological construction systems on the basis of multivariate forecasts. The article proposes a system of probabilistic forecasting models, which allows to provide the initial data for modeling the consistency of strategic and short-term plans. The proposed model is developed based on the use of simulation modeling and modifications of four known methods of forecast calculations. To confirm the adequacy of the proposed concept of modeling the parameters of organizational and technological building systems on the basis of multivariate forecasts and to improve the accuracy of the calculations, the necessary number of technologically and structurally homogeneous objects was determined and their selection was carried out with regard to consumer properties based on information about the type of residential buildings and public buildings of the most mass application in the Rostov region. It is proved that the proposed model allows to reduce the level of uncertainty in decision-making, and, as a consequence, to increase the utility (profit) at the established calculation horizon – 5 years.