Personalized prediction of the probability of developing arterial hypertension and coronary heart disease in miners with anthracosilicosis using an automated system

Introduction. The remaining high level of production-related cardiovascular morbidity necessitates timely preventive measures. The development of an automated forecasting technique will make it possible to implement personalized and differentiated approaches in the prevention of cardiovascular pathology in persons in contact with harmful production factors.

Materials and methods. The object of the study were workers employed in underground coal mining: One hundred sixty eight miners with previously diagnosed anthracosilicosis and 151 miners of the control group without lung pathology (a total of 319 people). Identification of diseases of the circulatory system and risk factors was carried out using clinical, laboratory, instrumental methods. The Bayes method was used to develop a forecasting system. The forecasting software as developed in the Lazarus environment using object-oriented programming methods.

Results. The most informative markers associated with a high probability of developing arterial hypertension and coronary heart disease in workers with anthracosilicosis have been identified. A software “Automated system for personalized prediction of the probability of developing arterial hypertension and coronary heart disease in miners with anthracosilicosis” has been developed. An automated forecasting system determines the degree of risk of diseases based on the results of the sum of prognostic coefficients.

Limitations. The limitation of the study was related to the sample of coal mine workers examined in the clinic of the Institute, namely: age from 40 to 54 years, long-term (more than 15 years) work experience in harmful working conditions. The study did not include miners who had other occupational diseases besides anthracosilicosis.

Conclusions. An automated system of personalized forecasting ensures the formation of high cardiovascular risk groups with minimal time costs, which allows starting primary prevention of cardiological pathology in a timely manner.

Compliance with ethical standards. The study was approved by the Local Ethics Committee of the Research Institute for Complex Problems of Hygiene and Occupational Diseases and was conducted in compliance with the ethical principles presented in the latest version of the Declaration of Helsinki developed by the World Medical Association. From patients there was obtained voluntary informed consent.

Contribution:
Panev N.I. — the concept and design of the study, collection and processing of material, statistical processing, writing a text;
Filimonov S.N. — editing;
Panev R.N. — statistical processing of material, writing a text;
Evseeva N.A. — collection and processing of material, writing a text;
Korotenko O.Yu. — collection of material, editing.
All authors are responsible for the integrity of all parts of the manuscript and approval of the manuscript final version.

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Acknowledgement. The study had no sponsorship.

Received: April 7, 2023 / Accepted: June 7, 2023 / Published: August 30, 2023